Governing The Arctic

The melting of Arctic sea ice is a phenomenon many of you will be familiar with. However, you may not be aware of the impact of these changes on international politics. The Arctic has long been a site of political contestation, being of key strategic importance during the Cold War. Its location between the (then) Soviet Union and the USA  led to an initial ‘battle’ over its control. However, as ice cover has receded in recent decades, the race for Arctic resources has taken off. Satellite images from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) in Figure 1 highlight how dramatic Arctic sea retreat has been since 1979, with an average 12% reduction per decade. Anthropogenically linked climate change is causing profound changes in Arctic ecosystems, a region more sensitive than most due to complex feedback mechanisms known as ‘polar amplification’. Temperatures have risen 1.1°C within the last 50 years, twice the rate of the rest of the globe, and with up to a staggering 3-5°C land temperature rise and 7°C sea temperature rise predicted in the Arctic within the next century, impacts of climate change are likely to intensify. These rising temperatures and resulting retreating ice are having significant political ramifications as resources previously inaccessible, such as fossil fuels, fish stocks and commercial shipping routes, are expected to become available in the near future. 

Figure 1: Arctic Sea Ice Retreat

A US Geological Survey in 2008 estimated that 90 billion barrels of oil, almost 1.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of natural gas liquids lay undiscovered in the Arctic (the distribution of which can be seen in Figures 2 and 3), sparking interest from Arctic nations. On top of this, predictions of ice-free summers by 2050 have fuelled speculation about shipping routes linking the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans through the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route (see Figure 4). Modelling from a low-emissions scenario, shipping lanes could run for up to 4 months, or 8 months if emissions reach the upper level of scientific estimates. This could cut journey times between America and East Asia from 30 to just 22 days, delivering significant cost savings as distance savings reach up to 40%; however, the viability of these routes have yet to be fully assessed. Despite this, the legal status of the shipping routes are also uncertain, with significant disputes in the Barents Sea between Norway and Russia and between Canada and the USA in the Beaufort Sea. Another concern (or opportunity depending on your standing!) is the increasing access to fish stocks previously unavailable. There is no doubt that financial incentives have fuelled the claiming of offshore territory and with such dramatic climatic changes come challenges to the permanency and stability upon which sovereignty traditionally rests. It is therefore unsurprising that unconventional practices of sovereignty have taken place, most notably the controversial planting of the Russian flag on the seabed at the North Pole in 2007. It is clear that as ice continues to retreat human activities will reach previously unseen levels and the situation appears ripe for conflict. 

Figure 2: Undiscovered Arctic Gas

Figure 3: Undiscovered Arctic Oil

Figure 4: Future Arctic Shipping Routes

The main organisational body in the region, the Arctic Council (AC), is made up of 5 littoral nations of Canada, Denmark, Noway, Russia and the United States, plus Finland, Iceland and Sweden, which together make up the Arctic Eight. However, the AC has no legal power, but rather is an international forum which aims to encourage cooperation. In the face of dramatic environmental change and increasing socio-economic activity, there have been suggestions that this existing regime, based on soft law, is insufficient for protecting Arctic ecosystems. Current efforts to protect the Arctic could suffer from a ‘lowest common denominator’ effect, whereby reluctance and inaction from one nation can undermine and dissuade action from others. Additionally, in accordance with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, each nation is subject to a 200 mile from-shore limit for economic activity, beyond which it must share resources. There are therefore concerns that fish stocks in the Central Arctic Oceans may suffer a tragedy of the commons style collapse as the region is subject to minimal limitations and regulation. This fear has already been realised in the Bering Sea, where the overfishing of pollock after their discovery in 1983 resulted in their commercial extinction as stocks fell from 13 million tonnes to 309,000 tonnes in 2007. There are growing calls for action and regulation, with 2000 scientists issuing a letter in 2012 appealing for an international agreement to prevent large-scale fishing in the Arctic Ocean, highlighting the risk to marine food webs. However, to date, few measures have been taken. 

The politics of the Arctic are delicate and often conflicting. The potential for mineral extraction, shipping routes and fish stocks are certainly moderate to long-term, but there is a clear need for proactive governance to avoid damage to ecosystems. The current geopolitical status quo of soft law is unambitious and sidesteps complex governance issues. However, it is unlikely that this will change as Arctic states are reluctant to surrender their sovereignty to an international binding body due to resource potential. Schofield and Potts (2008) propose that the most effective strategy should be highly precautionary, with a clear vision and political will to cooperate and act on key issues. Clearly, there is a need for urgency to avoid situations like the collapse of pollock stocks in the Bering Sea. However, it is yet to be seen whether the status quo will continue, or a new legally binding approach will be adopted. The Arctic states have the opportunity to promote a planetary perspective that reimagines the world as environmentally connected, with emissions in one country impacting another. If binding international agreements could be realised then the situation may offer new opportunities for cooperation between states with implications far beyond the region.