Despite Paris, Are We Doomed?

Last week I participated in a fake COP as part of my Global Environmental Change course at university and although playing devil's advocate as a fossil fuel lobbyist was pretty fun, by the end of the ‘conference’ we were on track for an almost 3-degree warming. This flagged up an important issue, that the Paris Agreement's ambitions to limit warming to 1.5 or 2 degrees are going to require some significant changes. So I thought I’d take a look at what the current NDCs might result in and what needs to happen. 


Research surrounding COP21 targets is often conflicting. There have been suggestions that we have just a 5% chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees and only a 1% chance of achieving 1.5 degree warming. On top of this, as shown in Figure 1, the target of net zero emissions by 2050 appears unlikely. However, since this research sparked headlines in July, it has been argued that even a ‘modest strengthening’ of the NDCs, which as I pointed out last week is supposed to happen, may put emissions in line with COP21’s targets. Despite differing opinions, it’s widely accepted that as things stand, the NDCs are inconsistent with the 2 degree target. Estimates range from a 2.6 - 3.1 degree warming, to a 4.9 degree increase.


Figure 1: Carbon dioxide emissions by year. The red line represents mean predictions, the dark red shading is the likely range of 90%, the light red shading represents the 95% range and the dotted lines indicate the various IPCC Representative Concerntration Pathways, which are four GHG concentration trajectories outlined in their 2014 Assessment Report.

In order to limit the earth to a 2-degree temperature rise, an annual 2.3% carbon dioxide emissions reduction is needed from 2030. This has only previously been achieved through determined shifts in national energy policy, not for emissions reduction, but energy security. Replicating this across the globe will require dramatic changes in our approach to energy production and consumption. Furthermore, to achieve the ambitious 1.5-degree target, a sustained 4-6% emissions reduction is needed. Similar reductions have only been seen during the 1930’s Great Recession, World War Two and the collapse of the Soviet Union (see Figure 2). However, it is important not to lose hope. Achieving these reductions is not geophysically impossible, but does require urgent ratcheting of the NDCs.


Figure 2: Global Carbon Dioxide Emissions by World Region, 1751 - 2015

Clearly, our ability to reach this reality rests on unprecedented changes in global development pathways. The world needs to overcome the current economic status quo and replace existing capital with new innovative investment into things like renewables and carbon capture. Government's must now focus on initiating the socioeconomic changes needed to fulfil the ambitions of the Paris Agreement. I stand by my support of international governance to tackle an international issue, but only time will tell whether we step up to this challenge.

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